Meanwhile, I haven’t had the chance to watch today’s games or the chance to digest things fully, but looks like Beckett was smooth, glad for Arroyo hitting his homer in Cincy, and hey, this excerpt by Nate Silver on clutch hitting was an interesting read. As I’ve argued elsewhere, studies on whether clutch hitting exists tend to divide game situations into clutch/non-clutch, but really, to study it properly requires studying a whole spectrum of possible “key” moments, each varying in the level of ‘clutchness’. As Silver notes:
it would help the discussion if we could define situations along a spectrum of importance, or “clutchness.”
I think Silver’s right in saying clutch hitting exists, but it’s a very small consideration compared to ability:
That said, apart from the bonus effects of plate discipline, it’s probably folly for a club to go looking for clutch hitters – the ability just isn’t important enough in the bigger scheme of things. Producing wins at the plate is about 70 percent a matter of overall hitting ability, 28 percent dumb luck, and perhaps 2 percent clutch- or situational-hitting skill.