Looking around MLB, I read a post on the Rooftop Report doubting whether Ryan Dempster of the Cubs would make it as a closer. Personally, I always thought he would - I drafted him in one of my fantasy teams expecting him to close - because I thought he could K people (a high K-rate, average BB-rate guy, A.J. Burnett or Matt Clement pre-2005 writ lite), but the blog seemed to have his doubts:
Take a close look at his numbers, before we talk about his health. As a starter this year, Dempster is averaging almost 6 walks per 9 innings pitched. In his career, Dempster has averaged 4.75 bb’s per 9ip. That simply will not work in key relief situations. Closers need to have excellent command, as not only do walks lead to runs, but they are also a tell-tale sign of missing their spots and leaving pitches out over the plate to get clobbered.
Disregarding the fact that Dempster has thus far been a decent closer, with 6 saves out of 7 opportunities, the comment brought up an interesting thought. Are walks merely a sign of some “true” underlying sign of bad pitching (missing spots, general bad command), or are they the direct cause of increased runs scored against? In other words, do pitchers give up hits more often directly after a walk (indicating that the pitcher didn’t have command), or do they give up hits at about the usual rate but are made to pay because someone’s already on base? Hmm.