As usual, Bill James is a giant font of baseball insight. In this letter to Rob Neyer, he calculates the expected number of no-hitters a pitcher is supposed to throw, and figures out the pitcher who was most likely to have thrown one by now who didn’t - it was Don Sutton before the 2004 season (0.891 expected no-hitters), and now it’s Roger Clemens (0.867 by 2003, 0.936 after the 2004 season).
I ran the formula for Pedro Martinez, which shows that Pedro too surpassed Sutton after 2004, with an expected number of no-hitters of 0.902.
What’s interesting to me is just how rare a no-hitter is: only four pitchers have an expected no-hitter of more than 1 - Nolan Ryan, Walter Johnson, Tom Seaver, and Randy Johnson - all of whom do have no-hitters. And what’s also interesting is that the formula is more accurate on 26 vs 27 outs - apparently many no-hitters involve caught-stealings, double plays, or out on bases.
So odds on seeing a no-no from either of the two great ex-Sox pitchers in 2005? Based on James’ formula, the chance of Clemens throwing a no-hitter in any one start is 0.15%, while the chance of Pedro doing likewise is 0.28%. If they make 33 starts this year, Rajah has a 4.72% chance of throwing a no-hitter (expected number of no-hitters is 0.048) and Pedro has a 8.87% chance (expected number is 0.093). Which is to say, there’s only a 13.7% chance of seeing either or both of them throw a no-hitter this season, and that’s assuming both stay healthy.
Of course, us Sox fans have had the luxury of seeing two no-hitters in this millennium alone (Hideo Nomo’s and Derek Lowe’s, pictured above), but it’ll be nice if either one of two of the greatest righties to ever pitch got one.