Looking at the offseason thus far, risk management, rather than just pure payroll flexibility, seems to be a huge theme for the Sox this offseason - all those incentive-laden contracts, for instance.
While I may think that Pedro is likely to be great next season, I can see the Sox point of view on this. If a key player is “merely” good instead of great, the Sox probably still make the playoffs. But if a key player who could have an MVP season instead has a bad one, that could jeopardise even making the postseason.
I would think of all our FAs this season, Pedro actually has the highest upside, but (as in many other financial investments) that high upside comes with greater risk. (I still think he’ll outpitch Schilling next season, as I said long ago, but I can see how Pedro might not be a good fit for a risk-averse organisation.) I don’t foresee Tek having stratospheric seasons in his 4 contract years, but neither do I see him completely deteriorating - don’t think he’ll be a $10 million player in 2008, unless the market that year for catchers is drastically different then, but you won’t lose it all.