Baseball Prospectus has its list of “lucky” pitchers based on the difference between their expected win-loss records and their actual records. No surprises that the Arizona starters clog up the bottom: Randy Johnson and Brandon Webb haven’t seen their great and decent (respectively) seasons translate. And no surprises to see Derek Lowe on the list, although it’s interesting that Curt Schilling was right there next to him. But is this really luck then, to see a list in which the luckiest guys are on teams with great offenses (see: Bartolo Colon, Lowe, Kenny Rogers, Jeff Suppan)? Luck is when you get the win in an 8-7 game between two teams that are even in offensive capability - say Sox vs Angels, rather than getting a win in an 8-7 game because you’re pitching against the Devil Rays who’re going to get shelled anyway. I guess this reaches the depths of some metaphysical discussion of “what is luck anyway”, but I was just putting the thoughts out there.
Luck be a Lady Tonight
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