Clay Davenport updates the methodology of the Baseball Prospectus playoff odds Monte Carlo simulation:
The Pythagorean record turns out to almost always be a better predictor than the actual record, but its advantage steadily declines with every game played, until actual record becomes a better predictor after 140 games.
I suppose that means that after 140 games or so, you have enough data from actual W-L records to make a good estimator of the team’s “true” ability. Philosophically, the playoff odds makes me think there’s a world in which “Timlin in the 8th, Williamson in the 9th” was actually adhered to in the ALCS by a certain ex-manager. Presumably, in that same world, my lottery numbers come up and I’m writing this entry sunning by the pool as servants feed me grapes.